I’ve been lucky enough to catch two of the biggest waves of technology in the last 30 years. In 1979, just as I left college, I jumped into the personal computer revolution, and rode that on the back of dBASE through 1992. In 1995 I thought the Web was the most fun you could have with your clothes on, and helped to build a network of websites called Andover.net that made it all the way to a cashout just before the dot-com imploded in 2000. I was “retired” when the blogging and text messaging wave started the build up to Web 2.0’s explosion of social networks and Twitter, so I got in too late to really capitalize on this third wave of computing.
I’m always looking for the next wave, and the epiphany is starting to form now from several threads. The key is that each wave is built on existing technology that gets combined with a demographic and cultural shift. The PC and dot-com waves were built on the Boomers. Web 2.0 has been the playground of Gen X and Gen Y. The next wave will require the Millennials, since it needs a different type of brain.
I have 3 Millennial kids, ages 26, 22, and 20. What has always distinguished their use of technology is multi-tasking. The joke was that they could do their homework while watching TV, listening to music, chatting online, text messaging, and talking on the phone. Do that while your brain is developing, and you have a different mind. The Boomers had their perception of reality permanently altered by chemicals. The Millennials are unique because of electrons.
So what will emerge from these new types of minds? I see three stories today that form the cluster of technologies for the next wave. ReadWriteWeb has a post about Augmented Reality. Read it. This is a technology plus user interface that will change the way we see the world. TechCrunch is into e-readers in a big way, and their latest post on a more pop-culture, Applish reader shows where this is going. Another thread being reported thoroughly by TechCrunch is the revenue issues for iPhone Apps.
Put all of these together, and you have the next wave. It will be multiple layers of socially generated content, presented on a hand-held device, probably without a keyboard, and powered by a wide range of apps developed by thousands of small startups. It will be used first by Millennials whose minds, social interactions, and eye-hand coordination have been forming since birth for this technology. The computer it uses will look nothing like what Boomers think of as a computer. It will make a few lucky people into billionaires, and thousands of people into millionaires. At least 2 or 3 new powerhouse companies will emerge, and they will displace the current tech leader. Google will be so busy protecting its franchise and defending itself in court against the Obama DOJ that it will miss this wave.
Mini-computer companies missed the PCs. Microsoft missed the dot-com. Google will miss the next wave. I don’t know if I’ll get to ride this one myself. I do know that I better spend a lot of time watching how my kids adopt it, because my brain wasn’t built for this.
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I’m not sure why you think Google will miss this wave. Android is an obvious first step to gain entry into that emerging market, and will serve them well in this next shift. Apple has been long since rumored to be working on products like what you’ve been talking about (I think they’ve basically just been waiting on the convergence of price, power consumption, and timing their marketing so they can release it after everyone’s already got an iPhone and they can maximize their industry buzz). The tablets are the future, for sure. I think netbooks will be largely subsumed, but it won’t be until Apple takes a swing at the design, setting the new industry standard almost by default. Netbooks will split into tablets (probably with some feature to differentiate by) and budget laptops. Apple will get vast amounts of pundit media churn when they announce their next ‘revolution in computing’, you can just see it.
I’m not sure we’ll see any new billionaires, though. I think the old billionaires will add a few billions, and there’ll be some new millionaires feeding at their feet, lording it over the more numerous struggling developers, much as with the Apple App Store currently.